Experts Reject Trump’s False Claim That Destroying Drug Boats Saved 100,000 Lives
President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting at Marine Corps Base Quantico on September 30. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
President Donald Trump has repeatedly defended his recent military strikes on vessels in the Caribbean he claims were involved in Venezuelan drug trafficking. But to justify the operations, he has used dramatic — and baseless — statistics.
Speaking at multiple events over the past week, Trump asserted that each drug boat was responsible for “25,000 American deaths” and insisted that by ordering the attacks he had “saved at least 100,000 lives” in the United States and Canada.
“Every boat kills about 25,000 people,” Trump claimed Sunday.
“We probably saved at least 100,000 lives,” he said Tuesday in remarks alongside Canada’s prime minister at the White House.
However, public health data and drug policy experts say his claims do not align with reality.
Why Trump’s Numbers Don’t Add Up
Preliminary federal statistics show that the total number of drug overdose deaths in the US in 2024 was around 82,000—from all drugs combined. Even adding overdose deaths from Canada does not bring the total close to Trump’s 100,000 lives saved boast.
That means Trump is essentially suggesting that four targeted boat strikes since September prevented more deaths than the nation experiences in an entire year from all drugs combined.
“The president’s figures are absurd,” said Carl Latkin, professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health.
“He’s implying that four boat strikes solved the overdose crisis. That has no connection to reality.”
Lack of Evidence on Drug Cargo
The administration also has not provided proof that the targeted vessels were carrying drugs at all—let alone “mostly fentanyl,” as Trump claimed. Neither the White House nor the Pentagon has produced evidence tying these boats to smuggling operations bound for the US.
In fact:
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The Caribbean is not a major fentanyl trafficking route.
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Venezuela is not a key source of fentanyl entering North America.
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Most fentanyl in the US is manufactured in Mexico and brought across the US–Mexico border, usually hidden in vehicles driven by US citizens, according to Homeland Security data.
Even if the boats did contain drugs, experts stress there is no scientific basis for linking a single shipment to 25,000 deaths.
The Misleading “Enough to Kill Millions” Math
Trump recently posted on Truth Social that one seized boat carried “enough drugs to kill 25 to 50 thousand people.” That kind of wording is familiar—it resembles sensational claims from police and politicians who often announce drug busts as “enough fentanyl to kill millions.”
But experts warn those statements are misleading.
“Most people using fentanyl already have a tolerance,” said Chelsea Shover, an epidemiologist at UCLA’s medical school.
She explained that the so-called “lethal dose” numbers assume the victims have no existing tolerance, which is generally not true among fentanyl users. As a result, actual overdose risk is not as simple as multiplying weight by potential fatalities.
Trump, however, has gone beyond those exaggerated claims, asserting that each boat actually causes tens of thousands of deaths—a claim fully unsupported by evidence.