US President Donald Trump delivered an announcement at the White House on April 2, 2025, unveiling a fresh round of tariffs.

London — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday that although the latest wave of US tariffs has not caused as much disruption to the global economy as many had anticipated, it would be misleading to assume they have had no impact on global growth.

In its newest World Economic Outlook, the IMF slightly raised its projections for economic growth in both the United States and worldwide. This adjustment comes partly because the actual size of the tariff hikes ended up being smaller than originally feared.

A series of trade negotiations in recent months — including multiple deals between Washington and key economic partners — helped drive the average US tariff rate down from its April peak to roughly 10% to 20% for most countries, according to the IMF.

The Fund now forecasts global growth of 3.2% in 2025, an increase from its July estimate of 3%, though still “well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%.” The US economy is expected to grow 2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, slightly higher than the IMF’s figures from earlier this year.

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted in a blog post that Washington granted broad exemptions and reached temporary trade arrangements, which helped limit retaliation. Many countries chose not to respond with counter-tariffs, and businesses adjusted quickly by stockpiling imports before tariff deadlines and redirecting supply chains.

However, Gourinchas emphasized that risks remain. “Trade tensions are still simmering, and there is no certainty that current agreements will hold,” he warned. He also said US importers could still push higher costs onto consumers, triggering inflationary pressure.

“Based on historical patterns, the true economic consequences of trade actions often take time to fully materialize,” he added.

This year, President Trump has orchestrated a volatile trade policy, abruptly raising tariffs on some countries, pausing others, and simultaneously signing selective bilateral deals. Tensions between Washington and Beijing have recently intensified once again, with Trump threatening a 100% tariff on Chinese goods following China’s new restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals.

Gourinchas also pointed out that the tightening of US immigration policy is putting additional strain on the labor market. The IMF’s updated forecast reflects a noticeable deceleration from the 2.8% growth recorded by the US in 2024.

“We’re observing a significant drop in the share of foreign-born workers in the US labor force,” he told reporters. “This is a negative supply shock, layered on top of the effects of tariffs.”

“And when US growth slows,” he added, “that generally means weaker growth for the rest of the world as well.”