On Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025, President Donald Trump returned to the White House aboard Marine One and walked through the Rose Garden, projecting confidence as the government shutdown entered another week. But behind the scenes, optimism about a quick political win is beginning to fray.
What the White House initially framed as a decisive standoff with Democrats is proving more complicated than expected. Instead of crumbling under pressure, Democratic lawmakers remain united around their demands, while early polls show the public is split — with Trump and his party absorbing nearly as much blame as their opponents.
The White House has threatened sweeping layoffs in the federal workforce to tighten the screws, but there is uncertainty even inside Trump’s orbit about whether that strategy will resonate with the public or backfire politically. “I’m supposed to say this is killing the Democrats,” admitted one Trump adviser. “But honestly, I don’t think it helps either side.”
The dynamic has caught strategists off guard. Shutdowns typically saddle one party with heavy political consequences, yet so far, voter outrage has been muted and Wall Street largely unfazed. A Washington Post poll underscored the challenge for Trump: 47% of Americans blamed him and the GOP, compared with 30% pointing fingers at Democrats.
Even so, Republican leaders are not retreating. Confident the pressure will eventually swing their way, they’ve doubled down on claims that Democrats are forcing a shutdown over benefits for undocumented immigrants. House Republicans haven’t even reconvened in Washington, a show of resolve meant to signal they’ll wait for Democrats to give in.
Within the administration, some advisers — notably budget director Russ Vought — see opportunity in the crisis. They’ve urged Trump to use the shutdown to shrink agencies and block spending on Democratic priorities, framing it as both a policy win and a chance to pin the blame on opponents. While critics warn this approach could fuel further backlash, Trump’s allies insist he is undeterred. “If there’s upside, he’ll take it,” said one. “He doesn’t care about the criticism.”
Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri acknowledged the stakes: “That’s a lot of Missourians who will not be able to afford health care if these subsidies lapse. We can’t just ignore that.”
For now, Trump’s team insists there will be no concessions until Democrats back down, even as some aides quietly explore options for compromise. But with Democrats prepared to endure a shutdown that could stretch into mid-October, no one in Washington is willing to predict when the stalemate might finally end.
“I think they assumed the Democrats would fold quickly,” one Trump adviser reflected. “But now people just shrug — another shutdown in Washington. Everyone’s waiting to see who blinks first.”